– More than a quarter of US metros are still recovering from COVID-era job losses
– These regions are mainly located in Rust Belt states, the South, and Northeast
– Experts are predicting another recession could hit the US as early as this year
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported that more than a quarter of US metros are still recovering from job losses caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, primarily in Rust Belt states, the South and Northeast. This has raised concerns about a potential recession, with some experts predicting it could happen as soon as this year. Despite overall national employment bouncing back by 2022 and unemployment remaining below 4%, some regions have still not regained lost jobs.
Certain regions, including the Rust Belt, parts of the South, California, and Hawaii, are still struggling to recover lost jobs, with some cities like New Orleans, Honolulu, San Francisco, Cleveland, Detroit, and Pittsburgh experiencing significant job shortfalls. In the Northeast, particularly New York City, job losses have been severe, especially in the service sector. Some places in upstate New York have faced challenges with slow growth prior to the pandemic, exacerbating job loss during the pandemic, and a decline in the labor force.
Timing the next recession is a topic of debate among analysts, with some pointing to signs like job losses in April, lower than expected job growth, and rising unemployment rates. Some experts predict a recession has already begun, while others anticipate a downturn in the near future that could lead to aggressive interest rate cuts. Wall Street veteran Gary Schilling warns of potential job losses and a market crash of up to 30% if a recession occurs, posing a threat to overconfident investors.